OPEC has increased production to record and predicts shock excess winter

ОПЕК увеличила добычу до рекорда и прогнозирует шоковый избыток зимой

OPEC countries in October increased oil production, setting a new historical record in 33,643 million barrels a day, said the cartel in its monthly report on the state of the market.

Compared to September, production volumes increased by 237 thousand barrels per day, compared with the first quarter – by 1.1 million barrels.

Only one of the 14 countries of the organization – Angola – showed a statistically significant reduction of production (165 thousand barrels per day), which was fully offset by accelerated growth of production in Libya and Nigeria, as well as additional supply from Iran and Iraq.

Libyan production has doubled in the past two months to a maximum of 3 years 528 thousand barrels per day.

Nigeria added 170 thousand barrels per day. Iraq increased production to record for 8 years in 4,561 million barrels per day. Iran, according to OPEC, increased their supply by 27.5 thousand barrels per day, and according to its own estimates – for 220 thousand barrels daily.

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Saudi Arabia has cut oil output by 51.7 thousand barrels per day, which is only 0.4% of the total oil industry of the Kingdom.

 

The delicate balance emerging in the oil market in the summer is completely gone, from the data of OPEC compared to the third quarter surplus on the market has more than doubled up to 1.1 million barrels per day

In winter, amid a seasonal decline in demand, the situation will worsen and, with the continued mining countries of the organization of the surplus will grow almost twice – up to 2 million barrels a day.

The imbalance is larger (2.3 million barrels) in the oil market was observed only in late 2015 – early 2016, the year led to the collapse in the price of “black gold” to a minimum of 12 years (27.2 USD per barrel Brent).

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Moreover, at current production volumes of the OPEC – 33,65 million barrels per day or balancing market in 2017 will not happen, follows from the data of the report. With global demand at 95.5 million barrels per day the production will give an excess of 0.95 million barrels per day.

The demand for its oil in 2017, OPEC is estimated at 32.7 million barrels per day. Production outside OPEC is forecast to grow by 100 thousand barrels in comparison with the 4th quarter of the current year and average of 62.9 million barrels a day.

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