Random fluctuation and 71 a body in the suburbs

Случайная флуктуация и 71 труп в Подмосковье

Until 80-ies of the last century, all of mathematics was divided into two categories: smart and stupid mathematics mathematics. Stupid mathematicians wrote clever articles about what “winning strategy” gambling is a myth for the gullible that it is absolutely impossible to predict what will fall out of cards or dice, what numbers will win the lottery. And on the basis of probability theory was convincingly proved that any game is a losing strategy for any player.

A single gain is possible — proclaimed stupid math, the player may one day get lucky and he will break a big jackpot, but any more or less long and regular game, the player will pull the won, because that is the theory of probability and it is not going anywhere.

A clever mathematicians listened to stupid and quietly laughed in his mustache (or whatever). Because they knew, be silly math right, in the world there would be a successful professional Poker players and black Jack and lottery, there would be punters, which amounted a fortune playing the stock exchange. In fact, smart mathematics generally proved the most successful players in black Jack or at the exchange, preferring a career in financial mathematics.

But once a mathematical vanity still prevailed, and in 1981, smart American mathematician Herman Chernov shamed silly mathematicians, published his famous article, revealing a winning strategy in the lottery of the state of Massachutes. In the article he wrote something that has long been known professional players, but had no idea the silly mathematics. Namely: of course it is impossible to predict what winning numbers, but it is possible to predict how to lead the players. So in any game where the amount you win depends on the behavior of other players, it is always possible, given the knowledge of this behaviour to build a winning strategy.

The details of the story I not to distract your attention, I will not write, who cares, I can Google, I can only say that the strategy Chernova guaranteed to give a return over 30% per annum on invested in the Massachusetts lottery money — more than could give the most profitable financial instruments.

Since then, the talk about “winning slot strategies do not exist” gradually disappeared, and the development of a winning algorithms for stock robots was huge, although very closed industry (that is why typically remain without pants those who are seduced by appeals to play on the Forex they have to play not against other players but against robots armed with winning strategies beginners scuffing).

What I remember now this episode?

Despite the fact that man is a rational creature and in theory unpredictable, he tends to a standard situation to react in a standard way and therefore, his behavior often can be predicted. And human action in the group, or rather the behavior of a group of people can be predicted and guaranteed. Therefore all the events happening in the world can be reduced to quite a small number of typical situations. And each scenario has only a few quite common scenarios of development. In other words, being in a typical situation, a society always behaves in a typical, totally predictable way.

The study of these situations in theory is a serious branch of mathematics called “game theory”. And practical extracting profit from this knowledge are engaged in such Sciences as sociology, politics and marketing.

Alone, even a well-prepared, it is hard to face a well-organised group operating in this market.

But for us singles, there’s a good market niche that we are actively exploited. We do not work with scripts, as marketers, or financiers. We work with the fluctuations, deviations from the script. If I see that it is a typical situation suddenly begins to develop with evident deviations from standard scenario, it means that this “typical situation” is not. This is a sign that here, at this point of time and space lies a very valuable information, which can be implemented with a large profit.

In fact, this is what I do.

When people ask me who I am by profession, I always find it difficult to answer. Most often I answer that I “journalist” or “writer”. And this is certainly true. But it is also true that journalism and writing in the English-speaking world earn a decent living is impossible (unless you sold yourself into slavery with giblets). But because my main occupation is work, it is similar to journalism, but relating to business of another sort.

Around us the flow of information is full of bits of precious, but well-hidden information and extraction of this hidden information is quite a profitable activity. Information is the hottest product on the market, and the real levers of power belong not to those who formally holds all sorts of high positions, and the one who owns the information and can dispose of it correctly.

For many years, from early adolescence, I engaged in the extraction of information from the mineral information resources. My sense of smell and hunting skills honed to the limit. So once I feel, when someone tries to camouflage information to hide it deep, and split such situations “on time”.

Thus, the fall of an-148 in the suburbs.

No matter how cynical it may sound, but “the plane fell” this is quite a typical situation causing the typical chain of further events: the Commission of inquiry, expression of sympathy, the publication of the lists of the dead, the stories and the memories of those killed in the press and on blogs, and of course, where do without it, the emergence of conspiracy theories. All sorts of blogger analyzes the trajectory of the fall and the radius of scattering of splinters in social networks, the study of pictures from the crash site, the public in Russia instinctively does not trust official information and searches it for the catch.

I don’t trust, and you’re looking for. But the radius of scattering of splinters and things like that, I do not analyze, because it is too delicate and complicated matter that requires such qualifications and such a large volume of raw data for analysis, which by definition cannot be isolated from an outside observer.

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I look at more. Fit whether the sequence of events in a typical scenario? Here is one very simple rule, no exceptions — if there is a critical deviation, so in reality we have not really the initial event, what we want to show.

And now I see these same deviations from the standard scenario.

Published a list of those killed, but nine people do not specify a patronymic. This situation occurs for the first time in the history of the publication of the lists on the MES website and therefore requires attention. Aggregation of other lists from other disasters shows that the deviation is not clearly understandable. For citizens of Russia, patronymics are published always. At the disposal of the Ministry of emergency situations this information is always there. Registration for the Board is carried out on the passports, and all passports are known, then known and patronymic: they are specified in the civil and foreign passports of Russian citizens.

In history only once, published a list in which there were no patronymics, but they were absent in all figures of the list, and there was quite a transparent situation, and the reasons for such exclusion were clear.

Here distinct reasons disappeared patronymic only part of the passengers are missing.

99.99% of the members of the General public it will seem absolutely nothing. But for hunter information is a huge red flag on a high pole, which attracts attention for many miles.

Because what he sees is the box bears the signs of other typical situations — information hiding.

Having a patronymic, information about the person is easy to Google. No middle name, finding information is difficult. If I had to make it difficult for the public identification of someone from the dead, that’s what I would have done. Indicated that its data without a middle name, and that this fact not be rushed into the eyes, saumil would have him removed to patronymic a few a man, selected at random.

It requires a large amount of tedious technical work. And then I do what I usually do in such cases is go to Facebook and write briefly a message saying that some of the passengers in the list of victims is not specified first name. And there’s nothing else to write. No conclusion, no hints. Just a fact.

I know it’s at least a hundred people rushed to verify this fact and to seek information to confirm or refute, but at the same time and discuss all sorts of “versions” and “conspiracy theories” arising from this fact. I just need to wait a bit. An hour and a half, and they combed through the entire Internet and bring in comments as much information on the search which I alone would have gone more than a day.

And then I’ll be surprised, I run into another deviation from the typical script, but on what!

After all, how the process of commenting on Facebook?

This is also the typical scenario. First your post I see only the friends and followers. Comments and write only your friends and followers. And responsible, too, at first, mostly friends and followers. Moreover, it is a relatively small nucleus in a hundred or so people who constantly comment on you and which you already know in person.

And then, if you wrote sensible thing and started to share, catch up with other members whom you do not know in person, but who also follow you. If they in turn share your message, then, after quite a long time you have in the comments there are already strangers, but not in very large quantity.

This time it was different. Just a few minutes after posting (the witness will not lie) the comments under my post literally exploded from the influx of absolutely not familiar to me the persons, who excitedly repeated only two objections:

1. Patronymics were not because they are foreigners.
2. Middle names was not because I was flying on foreign passports, where no middle names.

Not only that, it was an obvious lie, and the influx was so thick that after the removal of another comment of a stranger, immediately pop up another stranger with exactly the same comment, one by one, down to the punctuation.

And when I (already knowing what it is) began to look at the tape friends, rassharivat my message, then and there, some of them, I also spotted the same unknown commentators with the same texts.

So there was quite different, not anticipated, but also the typical scenario, the centralized creation of information noise, which is activated every time when you have to “swing” some important information.

So my assumption that the patronymic “disappeared” for a reason, it was not an empty assumption.

I waited for what news will bring my midst a Facebook “agents” and wait did not last long.

Friends and foes, rushing to check my information, the answer came quickly. In the comments flashed the middle name of one of the “mysterious” passengers Nikolaevich. Victim Sergey Panchenko no middle name was Sergei Nikolaevich Panchenko — Deputy of the Norilsk city Council. How do we know middle name? Yes, that is, several bloggers have written — and please!

How do bloggers know the middle name of the deceased passengers, even if the Commission of the Ministry of emergency situations does not know it, — that such a simple idea my commentators in the head somehow did not come. No one caught my eye and the other the gaping oddity. At that time, still hot pursuit online emerged only two biographies of the dead passengers. Tamerlan Trebechovice Anazarov and Sergei Nikolaevich Panchenko.

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Tamerlane by Antiserum all clear, he was the only Kazakh on Board and the buzz around his name raised the Kazakh media. And here’s Sergey Nikolaevich — is unclear. Why all of a sudden unknown bloggers rushed to discuss the biography of this little-known Deputy, although on Board was a very important person.

At that time I already knew about two of these “important” persons, Al Ulrich, chief engineer and head of a foreign subsidiary of RussNeft, is the position in the informal hierarchy of the company equivalent to the Vice-President, and another man, whose name was also on the List. We were personally acquainted, and he was the actual owner of a large metallurgical holding.


Случайная флуктуация и 71 труп в Подмосковье


Immediately struck by the fact that up to the time of the accident no information about the Deputy Sergey Panchenko in the network was not, and it was unclear where the bloggers took it. Google all mention of MP was associated only with the recent disaster. Earlier references was not. Information about Sergei Nikolaevich Panchenko appeared in the network only after his death.

However, once logged in Norilsk, I found a page of the Deputy Sergey Panchenko.

It would be possible to check that everything is in order, but when checking server response codes has turned out that this page was posted on the website (or corrected) in just a few hours before the disaster. So that here we ran into a strange fluctuation, the discrepancy with the standard scenario.


Случайная флуктуация и 71 труп в Подмосковье


Of course, anyone who works with information, knows that the bulk of the information from public sources provides search not in Russian and in English.

And it’s amazing, but the English segment too, there have only been two names and one of them was, guess… Sergey Panchenko. However, there about it it was not as the Deputy of the city Council of Norilsk, one of the key informants in the case of Regata named Sergey Panchenko. Another name from the passenger list, which was discussed in anglonet was Vyacheslav Ivanov, chief financial officer of Rosatom.

My call to colleagues in the Moscow version of “the deceased Director of Rosatom” immediately rejected, already talked to him on the phone, died of his namesake, but instead, I “deciphered” the impressive list of names from the list. It turned out that the aircraft sadly lost a lot of the richest people related to the oil industry and metallurgy and members of their families…

Another deviation from the usual statistical picture.

Informational silence about the victims in the Russian media lasted more than a day. Only for lunch the next day, as if on cue, the information on the dead passengers began to appear not in the blogs and in the media. Rather, one of the deceased passenger. I think no need to explain whom. Of course of the Deputy of the Norilsk city Council Sergey Panchenko, who, strange to say, appeared personally and knew many of the famous hournalist Russia. Knew, but somehow nothing about it was before the crash or almost two days after it. And — not a word though about one dollar millionaire, which had on Board a fair amount — they were all invited to a family celebration, one of a Russian oligarch.

And it was also the obvious loss of a typical scenario.

About Kazakh guy, the media is not remembered. Rather, casually wrote that “killed the citizens of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan” names. Perhaps because by that time, Kazakhstan has already officially denied a report about the death in the crash of their citizens.

And only the next day, the media began to write about other victims. But strangely started. Vice-President received a simple biography of “service engineer”, and my friend a dollar millionaire — turned small-time hired Manager. However, such distortions do not in themselves constitute “deviation” is a standard scenario in the Russian media. However, in conjunction with other events, they, too, are “unexplained fluctuation”.

There was a lot of minor but very important details, not obvious to an outsider, but a lot of speaking for hunter information. To talk about them, I will not, simply because it is interesting and clearly and briefly about them, tell does not work, but believe me — they are missing. Or may not believe me neither cold nor hot, I did not set goals in something to convince you, I just wanted to draw your attention to the glaring statistical inconsistencies.

And please do not rush to argue with me, or give some logical explanations to those oddities that I have described. I know in advance that you’ll find these explanations. They are apparently already well prepared with these explanations, it was time.

Prepared separately for each episode. But not in their entirety!

And besides, I have already made some conclusions?

I have not said that the deceased Sergey Panchenko was not the Deputy.

And I haven’t said that the deceased Sergey Panchenko was the informant on the case of Regata.

I’m not even argued that the name “Sergei Panchenko,” actually, all this has something to do.

I have made no assumptions that the plane was destroyed to ruin a bunch of senior metallurgists and petroleum or Vice versa, to simulate their death.

The only thing I claim is that if events around random “natural” of the crash so critical does not match any of the possible model scenarios of development of such events, it means that this event can not be random, “natural” disaster.

So here’s what I know definitely is the fact that when the plane is taxiing down the path to the runway, watched the eyes of those who knew that this Board goes on its last journey.

PS After posting this story is not over. Read the continuation.

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